Fitch Rating Raises Polish GDP Growth Prognosis to 5.7 Percent

According to the Fitch rating agency, Polish GDP grew to 5.7 percent and kept it as estimated at 4.5 percent.

Fitch noted that the Polish economy had bounced strongly with GDP growth returning to pre-pandemic levels, unlike most eurozone economies.

“Stronger than expected GDP growth in Q2 and the revision of Q1 data up means a revision of our forecasts to 5.7 percent from 4.4 percent as well,” Fitch wrote.

What is Important in the Fitch Report About Polish GDP:

Fitch referred to its June forecasts, while in the last available Fitch report on Poland, from August 27, the agency wrote that it had raised the Polish GDP growth estimate to 5.2 percent from 4.4 percent, with estimates of 4.5 percent and 3.8 percent (unchanged in the latest round of forecasts).

Fitch said Polish consumption had risen sharply, however, investment remained more variable. The loosening of restrictions in May supported a rebound in domestic demand while recent indicators suggested that growth would be maintained in the second half of the year.

Consumer sentiment had also gradually improved, Fitch commented, though research suggested that households’ biggest planned purchases for the coming year would remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Disruption to supply chains and increasing incidences of the Delta coronavirus variant may be challenges for the economy in the future.

The agency forecasts an interest rate hike by the central bank of 15 basis points by the end of this year and two further 25-basis-point increases (putting the reference rate at 0.75 percent at the end of next year), with CPI inflation seen at 4.8 percent and 3.5 percent.

In late August, Fitch confirmed Poland’s long-term foreign currency rating at ‘A-‘ with a stable outlook.

On October 1, Poland’s credit rating will be reviewed by S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s on October 29.

Among the three rating agencies, Poland’s highest credit rating has been issued by Moody’s, at ‘A2.’ Fitch and S&P both put the country at ‘A-,’ one level lower than Moody’s. All three give Poland a stable outlook.

Implications for Banking and Business

Developments in the Polish banking sector affect businesses operating in the country in several ways. Access to corporate banking services, credit availability, deposit rates, and payment infrastructure are all critical factors for companies — whether established Polish firms or foreign-owned entities entering the market.

For foreign entrepreneurs setting up operations in Poland, choosing the right banking partner is a strategic decision. Major Polish banks including mBank, ING Bank Śląski, Bank Millennium, PKO BP, and Santander Poland offer varying levels of service for international clients, including English-language online banking, multicurrency accounts, and dedicated relationship managers for corporate clients.

The Polish banking market is well-regulated by the KNF (Financial Supervision Authority) and participates in the EU deposit guarantee scheme (BFG — Bank Guarantee Fund), providing deposit protection up to EUR 100,000 per depositor per institution. This regulatory framework provides stability and confidence for businesses maintaining corporate funds in Polish banks.

If you are doing business in Poland or considering entering the Polish market, Zalewski Consulting can help. Learn more about our bank account opening services, or contact us for a free consultation.