Poland’s economy still going strong
According to the recent data published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Poland’s economy is expanding at the rate of 5 percent. This is excellent news for Polish government. What is more, the high rate of GDP growth has been rather stable for several months now. The expansion is driven mainly by strong consumption. Due to good retail sales, VAT revenue is also reaching new heights.
In a recent interview, Jerzy Kwieciński, Polish Minister of Investment and Development, stressed that Poland is a country which is developing fast, in a continuous and balanced manner. He expects that in the months to come the economy will keep expanding at the rate of 4.5 to 5 percent.
Although the outlook for 2018 remains positive, economic experts warn that in the upcoming years Polish economy will start cooling off. There are indications that we are currently at the end of a prosperity period. For example, the Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is an indicator of economic “health”, recently dropped to 51,4.
International Monetary Fund predicts that Polish economy in the upcoming years will expand at the rate of little over 3 percent. Polish Bank Association warns that the banking sector in Europe is expecting European economies’ GDP growth will soon move southward and that we should prepare for a period of recession.
Experts from Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) express a similar opinion. The claim that the entire Europe, and the CEE region in particular, are to experience recession. The early signs of that which can be observed are a slowdown of consumption and industrial output. It is not yet certain what will be the fallout of the trade war between the United States and China recently launched by American President Donald Trump.
In the draft budget bill, the government predicts the country’s GDP growth will be 3.8 percent in 2019 and 3.7 percent in 2020.