Interest Rates in 2024 – What to Expect

This year is full of many different events and changes that involve high interest rate. The world situation is dynamic and this presents uncertainty about the future. It is no different in the case of interest rates.

The year 2022 did not spare borrowers, and the possibility of further increases does not give us hope. But what is the reality? According to the forecast of PKO BP, interest rates will drop from 7% to around 5.75% in 2023. At the moment, the reference rate is 6.5%. The worst news is that before that happens, we can expect one more rate increase in 2022. The situation is dynamic, however, and no one can be sure.

Why Interest Rates are Too High:

There are many indications that the situation should improve, and the worst is probably behind us. The upcoming increases should not significantly affect the number of loan installments. Does this mean that people considering a loan should make confident decisions and go to the bank? Well, not necessarily.

This is a decision that should be made after a careful estimation. When analyzing it, one must, first of all, remember that the world situation is dynamic. This also applies to interest rates, which may increase overnight under the influence of various factors, which will have an impact on the amount of the mortgage installment.

The changing world situation makes it very difficult to predict the course of events precisely. However, according to most analysts, the crisis will slowly stabilize in 2023.

Much depends on inflation. There is a high risk that in 2023 it will be higher than predicted. However, one cannot have the illusion that inflation will slow down. On the contrary. Increases for the next year have already been announced. The speed of its growth will depend mainly on the coherence of the budget policy with the anti-inflationary policy.

Implications for Banking and Business

Developments in the Polish banking sector affect businesses operating in the country in several ways. Access to corporate banking services, credit availability, deposit rates, and payment infrastructure are all critical factors for companies — whether established Polish firms or foreign-owned entities entering the market.

For foreign entrepreneurs setting up operations in Poland, choosing the right banking partner is a strategic decision. Major Polish banks including mBank, ING Bank Śląski, Bank Millennium, PKO BP, and Santander Poland offer varying levels of service for international clients, including English-language online banking, multicurrency accounts, and dedicated relationship managers for corporate clients.

The Polish banking market is well-regulated by the KNF (Financial Supervision Authority) and participates in the EU deposit guarantee scheme (BFG — Bank Guarantee Fund), providing deposit protection up to EUR 100,000 per depositor per institution. This regulatory framework provides stability and confidence for businesses maintaining corporate funds in Polish banks.

If you are doing business in Poland or considering entering the Polish market, Zalewski Consulting can help. Learn more about our VAT and tax advisory, or contact us for a free consultation.