Roots and Roofs: How Migration Shapes the Polish Housing Market

As families gather for traditional holiday dinners, often traveling great distances to do so, experts are turning their attention to a less-discussed demographic metric: the residency rate. This figure, which measures how many people live in their birthplace, is proving to be a vital indicator for the stability and investment potential of the real estate market.

According to Andrzej Prajsnar of RynekPierwotny.pl, Poland’s real estate landscape is a map of both historical shifts and modern economic engines. Data from the 2021 census reveals that the “Recovered Territories” in the west still reflect lower residency rates due to post-war resettlements. However, the most dramatic changes today are occurring around major urban hubs like Warsaw and Poznań.

The surge in suburban development is staggering. Over the last two decades, Poznań County led the nation, adding 9.2 million square meters of residential space—an area equivalent to the entire city of Bydgoszcz. Similarly, counties surrounding Warsaw, such as Piaseczno and Wołomin, have grown by millions of square meters, rivaling the size of major regional cities.

This growth is primarily driven by younger generations. While older populations in regions like southern Małopolska tend to remain stationary, younger demographics are migrating to suburban peripheries to build homes or buy from developers. This influx of “new residents” lowers the local residency rate but signals a booming, high-demand housing market. Ultimately, understanding where people choose to settle—and why they leave their hometowns—is essential for predicting the future of Polish construction and property investment.