Fitch Rating Raises Polish GDP Growth Prognosis to 5.7 Percent

According to the Fitch rating agency, Polish GDP grew to 5.7 percent and kept it as estimated at 4.5 percent.

Fitch noted that the Polish economy had bounced strongly with GDP growth returning to pre-pandemic levels, unlike most eurozone economies.

“Stronger than expected GDP growth in Q2 and the revision of Q1 data up means a revision of our forecasts to 5.7 percent from 4.4 percent as well,” Fitch wrote.

What is Important in the Fitch Report About Polish GDP:

Fitch referred to its June forecasts, while in the last available Fitch report on Poland, from August 27, the agency wrote that it had raised the Polish GDP growth estimate to 5.2 percent from 4.4 percent, with estimates of 4.5 percent and 3.8 percent (unchanged in the latest round of forecasts).

Fitch said Polish consumption had risen sharply, however, investment remained more variable. The loosening of restrictions in May supported a rebound in domestic demand while recent indicators suggested that growth would be maintained in the second half of the year.

Consumer sentiment had also gradually improved, Fitch commented, though research suggested that households’ biggest planned purchases for the coming year would remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Disruption to supply chains and increasing incidences of the Delta coronavirus variant may be challenges for the economy in the future.

The agency forecasts an interest rate hike by the central bank of 15 basis points by the end of this year and two further 25-basis-point increases (putting the reference rate at 0.75 percent at the end of next year), with CPI inflation seen at 4.8 percent and 3.5 percent.

In late August, Fitch confirmed Poland’s long-term foreign currency rating at ‘A-‘ with a stable outlook.

On October 1, Poland’s credit rating will be reviewed by S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s on October 29.

Among the three rating agencies, Poland’s highest credit rating has been issued by Moody’s, at ‘A2.’ Fitch and S&P both put the country at ‘A-,’ one level lower than Moody’s. All three give Poland a stable outlook.