Surprising Data of the December Inflation

The Central Statistical Office published preliminary data on December inflation. The increase in prices turned out to be quite low. According to the initial estimate of the Central Statistical Office, inflation in December amounted to 16.6%. Compared to the previous month, the prices of consumer goods and services increased by 0.2 percent. This is almost a whole percentage point less than in November.

What is Important in December Inflation:

Prices of consumer goods and services according to the flash estimate in December 2022, compared to the same month last year, increased by 16.6%. (price index 116.6), and compared to the previous month they increased by 0.2%.

According to the Central Statistical Office, a high increase was recorded in food products and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased by 21.5% during the year. In turn, the increase in prices of energy carriers amounted to 31.2%.

On a monthly basis, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.4%, energy carriers decreased by 3.3%, and fuels for private means of transport decreased by 1.6%.

Data on December inflation shocked analysts. Most economists expected a decline compared to the previous month, but much smaller. The market consensus was 17.3%. “The consensus forecast is far behind (17.3%). It seems that just as inflation surprised everyone with its upward moves last year, it will be the other way around now,” Pekao bank analysts reported on Twitter.

Data showing a decrease in inflation may be optimistic, but it must be considered that 16.6% is still high. To recall December inflation target of the National Bank of Poland is 2.5%, with possible deviations of 1.5 to 3.5%.

According to economists, the greatest impact on the decline in price growth in December was due to a significant reduction in fuel prices. The optimistic mood is tempered by the increase in food prices.

Implications for Banking and Business

Developments in the Polish banking sector affect businesses operating in the country in several ways. Access to corporate banking services, credit availability, deposit rates, and payment infrastructure are all critical factors for companies — whether established Polish firms or foreign-owned entities entering the market.

For foreign entrepreneurs setting up operations in Poland, choosing the right banking partner is a strategic decision. Major Polish banks including mBank, ING Bank Śląski, Bank Millennium, PKO BP, and Santander Poland offer varying levels of service for international clients, including English-language online banking, multicurrency accounts, and dedicated relationship managers for corporate clients.

The Polish banking market is well-regulated by the KNF (Financial Supervision Authority) and participates in the EU deposit guarantee scheme (BFG — Bank Guarantee Fund), providing deposit protection up to EUR 100,000 per depositor per institution. This regulatory framework provides stability and confidence for businesses maintaining corporate funds in Polish banks.

If you are doing business in Poland or considering entering the Polish market, Zalewski Consulting can help. Learn more about our VAT and tax advisory, or contact us for a free consultation.