Surprising Data of the December Inflation

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The Central Statistical Office published preliminary data on December’s inflation. The increase in prices turned out to be quite low. According to the initial estimate of the Central Statistical Office, inflation in December amounted to 16.6%. Compared to the previous month, the prices of consumer goods and services increased by 0.2 percent. This is almost a whole percentage point less than in November.

Prices of consumer goods and services according to the flash estimate in December 2022, compared to the same month last year, increased by 16.6%. (price index 116.6), and compared to the previous month they increased by 0.2%.

According to the Central Statistical Office, a high increase was recorded in food products and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased by 21.5% during the year. In turn, the increase in prices of energy carriers amounted to 31.2%.

On a monthly basis, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.4%, energy carriers decreased by 3.3%, while fuels for private means of transport decreased by 1.6%.

Data on December’s inflation shocked analysts. Most economists expected a decline compared to the previous month, but much smaller. The market consensus was 17.3%. “The consensus forecast is far behind (17.3%). It seems that just as inflation surprised everyone with its upward moves last year, it will be the other way around now,” Pekao bank analysts reported on Twitter.

Data showing a decrease in inflation may be optimistic, but it must be considered that 16.6% is still high. To recall the current inflation target of the National Bank of Poland is 2.5%, with possible deviations of 1.5 to 3.5%.

According to economists, the greatest impact on the decline in price growth in December was due to a significant reduction in fuel prices. Optimistic mood is tempered by the increase in food price.

 


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