Polish Inflation in May: Mixed Trends in Price Changes

Preliminary data for May 2024 confirm a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.8% in Poland, consistent with estimates but slightly below the market consensus of 2.8%. This follows an inflation rate of 2.4% in April and 2% in March.

The Central Statistical Office reported that several categories had a significant impact on the overall consumer inflation rate in May compared to April. Higher prices were observed in food (up 0.3%), restaurants and hotels (up 0.9%), health (up 0.9%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (up 0.5%). These increases contributed to the overall inflation rate by 0.08, 0.05, and 0.03 percentage points, respectively. In contrast, prices fell in recreation and culture (down 1.4%), transport (down 0.4%), and clothing and footwear (down 0.4%), reducing the overall inflation rate by 0.09, 0.04, and 0.02 percentage points, respectively.

Year-on-year, prices for restaurants and hotels surged by 7.9%, housing by 1.6%, and food by 1.3%, significantly contributing to the overall inflation rate. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear prices dropped by 0.2%. Among food items, cold cuts rose by 4.5%, meat by 1.9%, and bread by 4.9%. However, prices for rice, pork, poultry, and eggs fell by 3%, 2.7%, 4.2%, and 3.7%, respectively.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will release data on core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) on Monday, providing further insights into underlying inflationary pressures. Overall, the May 2024 inflation data for Poland show a mixed picture, with notable price increases in some sectors and decreases in others, reflecting the complex nature of inflation dynamics.