Poland’s Inflation to Reach 4.9 % This Year: Central Bank Prognosis

Poland’s Inflation will increase to 4.9 percent but GDP will rise to 5.3 percent, according to the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) November forecast.

According to the flash estimate, CPI in September rose to 5.8% YoY from 5.5% in August (consensus at 5.5-5.6 % YoY, ING 5.6% YoY). The strong price pressure in Poland is due to the continued high pace of fuel prices (28.6% YoY) and further increases in food prices (to 4.4% from 3.9% in August). Energy prices were 7.2% up and should accelerate further due to the already announced natural gas price hike, starting in October.

What is Included in Latest Poland’s inflation:

In its monthly Inflation Report, the NBP also said Poland’s inflation will grow even more, to 5.8 percent, in 2022 and will decline to 3.6 percent in 2023. GDP growth will remain strong, but will decrease compared to 2021’s 5.3 percent, and will reach 4.9 percent in both 2022 and 2023, the NBP said.

Last week, the NBP’s Monetary Policy Council raised the reference interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, exceeding market expectations, to 1.25 percent. A month earlier, the Council reversed its low-interest-rate policy with an increase of 0.4 percent in the main interest rate, the first hike in years.

The official CPI inflation reading by the Central Statistical Office for September was 5.9 %, more than double the NBP’s official target of 2.5 percent. But in a flash estimate for October, Poland’s inflation was seen even higher, at 6.8 percent.

As it should reduce the propensity to tighten monetary policy, a weakening of the zloty in November is possible. Admittedly, the zloty gained on Friday, as foreign investors believe that the proposal (rejected) of a 190bp rate hike at the September MPC meeting means that the NBP will follow the Czech CNB (which raised rates by 0.75pp yesterday). In our view, however, there could be a disappointment – MPC can underdeliver with the scale of tightening (we see a hike of about 15bp).

Implications for Banking and Business

Developments in the Polish banking sector affect businesses operating in the country in several ways. Access to corporate banking services, credit availability, deposit rates, and payment infrastructure are all critical factors for companies — whether established Polish firms or foreign-owned entities entering the market.

For foreign entrepreneurs setting up operations in Poland, choosing the right banking partner is a strategic decision. Major Polish banks including mBank, ING Bank Śląski, Bank Millennium, PKO BP, and Santander Poland offer varying levels of service for international clients, including English-language online banking, multicurrency accounts, and dedicated relationship managers for corporate clients.

The Polish banking market is well-regulated by the KNF (Financial Supervision Authority) and participates in the EU deposit guarantee scheme (BFG — Bank Guarantee Fund), providing deposit protection up to EUR 100,000 per depositor per institution. This regulatory framework provides stability and confidence for businesses maintaining corporate funds in Polish banks.

If you are doing business in Poland or considering entering the Polish market, Zalewski Consulting can help. Learn more about our bank account opening services, or contact us for a free consultation.